I’m Not Hopeful for the Future of the Cannabis Industry
The cannabis industry is in really bad shape. This is not news for those of us on the inside, but those on the outside only see more and more states legalizing and total industry growth going up and to the right.
So how can one have no hope?
The devil is in ALL the details on this issue, and there are thousands, more than I’m willing to cover in this article alone. If you’re just now stumbling upon this industry from an insider perspective, or if you’re evaluating whether this is an industry you’re interested in, stop now and start reading a bunch on the state of the industry from people inside it.
For the rest of you, you know what’s cookin’:
California’s market, the largest market in the world, mind you, is falling apart in flaming pieces like the Hindenburg
Colorado’s market is at best stagnant and at worst shrinking, the joke that is the social equity program here has been sabotaged and poisoned by the big incumbent brands and retailers against the people it’s supposed to help, and the state continues to throw more regressive policies our way
Michigan is about to suffer a similar fate to Colorado’s growth, as border states start legalizing and taking away MI’s weed tourism. The race to the bottom there is giving Usain Bolt
New York! Oh my. New York. These poor mfers. The state couldn’t have bungled this worse with corruption running rampant
Massachusetts, speaking of corruption, is giving NY a run for its money. Read ANY news about the CCC and you’ll be inundated with drama
Texas is currently trying to and likely will succeed in banning all forms of hemp THC, the most bustling cannabis market in the US right now
I could GO ON. But you get it.
I’ve been in this industry only since 2016, but in that time I’ve seen state after state “legalize” and then continue to make many of the exact same mistakes as one another. It truly doesn’t look like states are learning from each other.
Coming into 2025, many in our industry were perplexingly excited about the prospects of the new administration, citing their cannabis friendliness despite all the evidence to the contrary. Seemingly ignoring Trump’s first go ‘round that resulted in the rescinding of the Cole Memo by his then AG Jeff Sessions, they put all their faith in his chosen HHS leader RFK Jr.
Well, turns out the Leopards Eating Faces Party is actually run by leopards that will actually eat your face.
The new leader of the DEA is a massive drug war proponent that proudly parrots the worst of the anti-cannabis propaganda. The champion for an unfortunately large amount of cannabis industry folks, RFK, added restrictions to medical research grants that use the word “marijuana” and other related terms. Apparently he isn’t the super pro-cannabis, Joe Rogan libertarian hero they expected him to be.
Then we have the hemp side of the industry. I’m going to stand on business, this was my most hopeful sector for the future of the industry, even though I came out swinging hard against them some time ago. Their arguments convinced me.
The Farm Bill remains the single best opportunity to own, run, and participate in the cannabis industry to date. It’s the best pathway to social equity, as the barrier to entry is very low and inexpensive. It has the potential to “backdoor” federal legalization without taking a full approach at it in Congress as a standalone bill.
You would think Republicans would identify this opportunity and jump on it, stealing the leadership from the Democrats on the issue. You would think they would’ve done it in the first Trump administration. I sure did. How did that turn out?
Yep, Republicans are hell bent on fighting against cannabis with all they got. All eyes on Texas.
Dan Patrick, the Darth Vader to Texas’ Emperor Palpatine, Greg Abbot, has launched a full-chested attack against all forms of THC in the state with the sole exception being their “compassionate” use program, possibly the most limiting and low-access medical cannabis program in the country.
The ban he proposed just passed the TX Senate and is being considered now for full passage in the House. The situation looks dire. Some hemp industry people are still convinced it will die in the House. We’ll see, I don’t know what the vibe in the state house is there.
But it should be incredibly alarming to all those that are taking this industry’s growth and existence for granted, using phrases like “the toothpaste doesn’t go back in the tube” or “the genie’s out of the bottle.” This is absolutely not true. The popular support for cannabis does NOT matter to these people. Not to the Republicans most certainly, and the Democrats haven’t moved on it in line with popular support either.
Don’t take anything for granted. They can take it all away tomorrow if they want.
And in this current place we’re in, I don’t see any positive signs on the horizon. I don’t see money jumping in any time soon, and it has been that way since 2020. Far too risky. I don’t see any positive changes happening in any legacy recreational state. They’re all in shambles. I don’t see any new markets promising to change the tide. They’re all doomed for similar fates. I don’t see ANY political will on either side to do anything; with the exception of the unbelievably powerful will the Republicans seem to have to take the industry away.
Many are being churned out of the industry because of these dynamics. The stress and anxiety of operating in this industry is too much for a lot of people and we’re losing talented folks every day.
Certainly there are still some companies doing great, some states aren’t total shit shows (yet), and some people that will never leave.
But even those of us that are still in it, as I am, we’re not placing any bets on things getting better. We’re just all like the Sean Bean in Game of Thrones meme, wearing our thick furs, bitter, bearing down to make it through the long and brutal winter.
So that’s where I’m at, folks. I got nothing. It’s not great to just get a long article of doomsaying with no solutions or positive angles to offer, I get it. I’m not one to usually complain without presenting solutions like the end of a John Oliver segment.
Unfortunately, in this time and place, I have none. My attention is being drawn further into protecting the basic human rights of our marginalized neighbors from the creeping darkness of fascism. Seems to be the higher priority.
If you have glimmers of hope shining from somewhere, reach out and share it with me. I’m happy to signal boost any actual progress that can be made.